About the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change
Climate change is the greatest global health threat facing the world in the 21st century, but it is also the greatest opportunity to redefine the social and environmental determinants of health. In 2015, countries committed to limiting global warming to “well below 2°C” as part of the historic Paris Agreement. The annual Countdown report provides an independent assessment of progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and represents the findings and consensus of 51 leading academic institutions and UN agencies.
* Access a Commission report in Spanish here
Comments
New findings presented in the seventh annual global report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change reveal that governments and companies continue to pursue strategies that increasingly threaten the health and survival of everyone alive today and of future generations. .
- The health impacts of multiple crises are exacerbated by persistent dependence on fossil fuels and place additional pressure on health systems. This is resulting in increased risk of food insecurity, infectious disease transmission, heat-related illnesses, energy poverty, and deaths from exposure to air pollution.
- Governments and companies continue to prioritize fossil fuels over clean energy solutions to the detriment of health. The vast majority of countries analyzed still collectively allocate hundreds of billions of US dollars to subsidize fossil fuels; This often equates to sums comparable to or even greater than the amount set aside in their total health budgets. Meanwhile, the current strategies of fossil fuel giants threaten a livable future and would lead to emissions that exceed international climate targets to minimize global warming.
- As countries devise responses to these crises, a renewed reliance on fossil fuels could ensure a fatally warmer future. However, a health-focused response can still provide a prosperous future if immediate action is taken. Accelerating the transition to clean energy and energy efficiency will help prevent further increases in climate change-related deaths and illnesses and deliver rapid health benefits through improved energy access and security, cleaner air, diets and lifestyles. of healthier lives and more livable cities.
As countries and health systems continue to grapple with the health, social and economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and a global energy and cost of living crisis, climate change continues to increase unabated. . Reliance on fossil fuels is compounding the health impacts of these crises, according to The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change Report 2022 : health at the mercy of fossil fuels.
“Our report this year reveals that we are at a critical moment. We see how climate change is causing serious health impacts around the world, while the world’s persistent dependence on fossil fuels compounds these health harms amid multiple global crises, making households vulnerable to volatile fossil fuel markets, exposed to energy poverty and dangerous levels of air pollution,” says Dr Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London.
The seventh Lancet Countdown report represents the work of 99 experts from 51 institutions, including the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and is led by University College London . It is published ahead of the 27th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP27) and features 43 indicators including new and improved metrics that monitor the impact of extreme temperatures on food insecurity, household air pollution and aligning the fossil fuel industry with a healthy future
“Despite the challenges, there is clear evidence that immediate action could still save the lives of millions, with a rapid shift towards clean energy and energy efficiency. Accelerated climate action would generate cascading benefits, with more resilient health, food and energy systems. With the world in crisis, governments and businesses have the opportunity to put health at the center of an aligned response to these simultaneous crises and deliver a healthy and safe future for all,” adds Dr. Romanello.
Climate change is amplifying the health impacts of multiple crises
Persistent overreliance on fossil fuels is rapidly worsening climate change, leading people around the world to feel dangerous health impacts. The data shows that no country is safe. Climate change increases the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rainfall, wildfires, storms and droughts, which claim hundreds of thousands of lives each year around the world.
“Health systems are the first line of defense in addressing the physical and mental health impacts of extreme weather events and other impacts of a changing climate. But health systems are struggling to cope with the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and other challenges, putting lives at risk, today and in the future,” says Professor Kristie Ebi, leader of the Lancet Countdown adaptation working group . Planning and Resilience for Health and Professor at the Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington.
Data from this year’s report suggests that, in the short term, climate change is affecting all pillars of food security.
Rising temperatures and extreme weather events threaten crop yields and directly shorten the crop growing season by 9.3 days for corn, 1.7 days for rice and 6 days for winter wheat and spring. Extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 103 countries in 2020 than annually between 1981 and 2010. On average, 29% more of the global land area was affected by extreme droughts annually between 2012 and 2021 than between 1951 and 1960, putting people at risk of food and water insecurity.
“Climate change is already having a negative impact on food security, with worrying implications for malnutrition and malnutrition. Further increases in temperature, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and carbon dioxide concentrations will put even more pressure on the availability and access to nutritious food, especially for the most vulnerable. “This is particularly worrying given that global food supply chains have once again emerged this year as highly vulnerable to shocks, manifesting in rapidly rising food prices and commensurate increases in food insecurity.” says Professor Elizabeth Robinson, leader of the Lancet Countdown Climate Working Group.
Premature deaths attributable to exposure to ambient air pollution PM2.5
| Exposure to extreme heat affects health directly, exacerbating underlying conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and leading to heat stroke, adverse pregnancy outcomes, worse sleep patterns, poor mental health, and increased heat-related deaths. injuries. It also indirectly affects health by limiting people’s ability to work and exercise . |
Vulnerable populations are most at risk from extreme heat. Children under one year of age collectively experienced 600 million more days of heat waves (4.4 more days per child), and adults over 65 years of age, 3.1 billion more days (3.2 more days per person), in 2012-2021, compared to 1986-2005.
Heat -related deaths increased 68% between 2017 and 2021, compared to 2000 and 2004; while human exposure to very high or extremely high fire danger days increased in 61% of countries between 2001 and 2004 and between 2018 and 2021.
Heat exposure caused the loss of 470 billion potential work hours worldwide in 2021 with income losses equivalent to substantial proportions of countries’ GDP, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income countries ( 5.6% in low- to middle-income countries) and worsened the impact of the cost of living crisis.
The changing climate is also affecting the spread of infectious diseases.
The appropriate time for malaria transmission increased by 32.1% in mountainous areas of the Americas and 14.9% in Africa in 2012-2021, compared to 1951-1960. The influence of climate on the risk of dengue transmission increased by 12% globally in the same period. Combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, the increase in infectious diseases due to climate change has led to misdiagnoses , pressure on health systems, and difficulties in managing simultaneous disease outbreaks.
Governments and companies continue to prioritize fossil fuels to the detriment of people’s health
New and updated indicators revealed that governments and companies continue to prioritize extracting and burning fossil fuels, despite the serious and compounding health harms of climate change.
The carbon intensity of the global energy system (the sector that contributes the most to global greenhouse gas emissions) has fallen by less than 1% since 1992 levels when the UNFCCC was adopted, in which countries agreed to prevent dangerous human-caused climate change. and its negative effects on human health. At the current rate of change, full decarbonization of the energy system would take 150 years, a far cry from the requirements of keeping global warming at 1.5°C as outlined in the Paris Agreement.
Governments continue to encourage the production and consumption of fossil fuels, with 69 of the 86 governments analyzed in this report effectively subsidizing fossil fuels, for a net total of $400 billion in 2019 (taking into account the contribution of both carbon pricing instruments and fossil fuel subsidies). These subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 31 of the countries and exceeded 100% in five countries. At the same time, governments have so far failed to provide the smaller sum of $100 billion per year to help support climate action in low-income countries, which they pledged to achieve by 2020 in the Copenhagen Accord, jeopardizing a just transition. to a healthy future.
Regardless of their climate claims and commitments, the current strategies of 15 of the largest oil and gas companies would lead to their greenhouse gas production exceeding their share of emissions compatible with 1.5°C warming by 37%. in 2030, and 103% in 2040. As m any file posts profits this year, further delaying its investments for a zero-carbon energy transition threatens to permanently divert the world from meeting the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, delays in adoption and unequal access to clean energy have left households dependent on the use of dirty fuels, exposed to energy poverty and dangerous levels of indoor air pollution . Biomass (such as wood or dung) contributed up to 31% of the energy consumed in the domestic sector globally in 2020, rising to 96% in low- to middle-income countries.
Household concentrations of air pollution from hazardous particles (PM2.5) exceed the WHO recommendation by 30 times in 2020 in the 62 countries assessed, exposing families to dangerous levels of air pollution.
Global crises cannot be addressed in isolation, but rather need a unified cohesive approach to create equitable solutions for all.
Failure to do so would worsen overall health outcomes. Less than a third of the $3.1 trillion spent on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or air pollution. Now, short-sighted responses to the energy crisis and the cost of living crisis threaten to worsen climate change, and many governments and companies are turning back to coal, further threatening people’s health and survival.
“The current strategies of many governments and companies will lock the world into a fatally warmer future, linking us to the use of fossil fuels, which are rapidly closing the prospects for a habitable world. “This is the result of a profound lack of recognition of the need for an urgent reprioritization of funding to ensure a healthy, affordable, zero-carbon future,” says Professor Paul Ekins, leader of the Lancet Countdown working group on economics and finance and professor of resources and technology. Environmental Policy at the Bartlett School, University College London .
A health-focused response could still offer a prosperous future
Despite the worrying indications set out in this report, there are still glimmers of hope.
A health-focused response to today’s energy, cost of living and climate crises would see energy companies rapidly switch to clean fuels and countries quickly reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, unlocking a future of development sustainable, healthy environments and health equity while improving energy security and opening a path to economic recovery.
Improvements in air quality would help prevent deaths resulting from exposure to fossil fuel-derived particulate air pollution, of which there were 1.3 million in 2020 alone. Accelerate the transition to more balanced, plant-based diets Not only would it reduce 55% of agricultural sector emissions from red meat and milk production, it would also prevent up to 11.5 million diet-related deaths annually and reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases.
Today, only 27% of urban centers are classified as moderately green or above, and people still rely on air conditioning for cooling, which in 2020 was responsible for 900 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions and 24,000 deaths from exposure to PM 2.5. Health-first urban redesign can provide more green spaces that reduce urban heat, improve air quality, and benefit physical and mental health.
Some signs of hope and movement toward action are evident from the data in this year’s report. Although total clean energy generation remains insufficient, it reached record levels in 2020, and zero-carbon sources accounted for 80% of investment in electricity generation methods in 2021. For the first time, direct and indirect employment in energy Renewables surpassed direct employment in fossil energy. fuel extraction industry, which recorded 10.5 million employees (10% less than in 2019), reaffirming that renewable energy could support job security, now and in the future.
The health sector itself , while still responsible for 5.2% of all global emissions, has demonstrated impressive climate leadership, and 60 countries have committed to transitioning to climate-resilient and/or climate-resilient health systems. low or net carbon emissions as part of COP26. Health Program.
Simultaneously, public engagement with the health aspects of climate change is at an all-time high. Media coverage of health and climate change increased by 27% in 2021 from 2020 and there has been greater engagement from world leaders, with 60% of countries drawing attention to climate change and health at the 2021 UN General Debate, likely due to heightened awareness on the back of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The world is at a critical moment.”
“Our global commitment to reducing fossil fuels is a long way from normal, and now fossil fuel-focused responses to the energy crises we face could reverse the progress made so far. We must change, otherwise our children face a future of accelerated climate change, which threatens their very survival,” says Professor Anthony Costello, co-chair of the Lancet Countdown .
“A health-focused response to the current crises would still provide the opportunity to deliver a healthy, resilient, low-carbon future, in which people around the world can not only survive but thrive. There is still time to realize this future if we act now.”
In response to the publication of the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres (who was not involved in writing the report) says: “ The climate crisis is killing us .” It is undermining not only the health of our planet, but the health of people everywhere, through toxic air pollution, decreased food security, increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks, record extreme heat, droughts , floods and more.”
“Human health, livelihoods, family budgets and national economies are taking a hit as fossil fuel addiction spirals out of control. The science is clear: massive, common-sense investments in renewable energy and climate resilience will ensure healthier, safer lives for people in every country.”
A linked editorial published in The Lancet says: “The world is approaching multiple tipping points that, once crossed, will take temperatures well above 2°C. The key conclusion from these findings is that current global actions are insufficient... The Countdown is our best chance to put health at the center of a policy response to protect human well-being. “He deserves our support, but also action.”
