WHO Projects Surge in Cancer Cases by 2050

In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases globally, with lung, breast, and colorectal cancers being the most prevalent. Urgent action is warranted.

March 2024
WHO Projects Surge in Cancer Cases by 2050

On the occasion of World Cancer Day , which is commemorated on February 4, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), dependent on the World Health Organization (WHO) , published the latest estimates of the global burden of cancer.

The WHO also released survey results from 115 countries, showing that most nations do not adequately fund priority cancer and palliative care services as part of universal health coverage (UHC).

The IARC estimates, based on data reported by countries in 2022, highlight the growing burden of cancer, the disproportionate impact on underserved populations, and the urgent need to address cancer inequalities around the world .

It is estimated that in 2022 there will be 20 million new cases of cancer and 9.7 million deaths. The estimated five-year survival rate after cancer diagnosis was 53.5 million.

About 1 in 5 people develop cancer during their lifetime and about 1 in 9 men and 1 in 12 women die from the disease, the IARC reported in a statement.

The WHO global survey on universal health coverage and cancer shows that only 39% of participating countries covered the basics of cancer management as part of their funded basic health services for all citizens, the ’ health benefits packages’ (PBS). Only 28% of participating countries additionally covered care for people requiring palliative care, including general pain relief, and not just pain related to cancer.

Lung, breast and colorectal: the three main cancers in 2022

New estimates from the IARC Global Cancer Observatory, covering 185 countries and 36 cancer types, show that just 10 cancer types accounted for around two-thirds of new cases and deaths globally in 2022.

Lung cancer was the most common cancer worldwide, with 2.5 million new cases representing 12.4% of total new cases.

Breast cancer ranked second (2.3 million cases, 11.6%), followed by colorectal cancer (1.9 million cases, 9.6%), prostate cancer (1.5 million cases, 7.3%) and stomach cancer (970,000 cases, 4.9%).

Lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths ( 1.8 million deaths, 18.7% of total cancer deaths), followed by colorectal cancer (900,000 deaths, 9.3%), liver cancer (760,000 deaths, 7.8%), breast cancer (670,000 deaths, 6.9%) and stomach cancer (660,000 deaths, 6.8%).

The resurgence of lung cancer as the most common cancer is likely related to persistent tobacco use in Asia.

There were some sex differences in incidence and mortality with respect to the world total for both sexes . For women , the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death was breast cancer, while for men it was lung cancer.

Breast cancer was the most common cancer among women in the vast majority of countries (157 out of 185). For men, prostate and colorectal cancers were the second and third most common cancers, while liver and colorectal cancers were the second and third most common causes of cancer death. For women, lung and colorectal cancer ranked second and third in both number of new cases and deaths.

Cervical cancer was the eighth most common cancer worldwide and the ninth cause of cancer death, with 661,044 new cases and 348,186 deaths. It is the most common cancer in women in 25 countries, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. While recognizing the different levels of incidence, cervical cancer can be eliminated as a public health problem by expanding the WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative.

Projected increase in cancer burden in 2050

More than 35 million new cases of cancer are predicted in 2050 , a 77% increase from the 20 million cases estimated for 2022. The rapidly growing global cancer burden reflects both aging and population growth, as well as changes in people’s exposure to risk factors, several of which are associated with socioeconomic development.

Tobacco, alcohol and obesity are key factors behind the increasing incidence of cancer, and air pollution remains a key driver of environmental risk factors.

In terms of absolute burden, countries with a high human development index are expected to experience the largest absolute increase in incidence, with 4.8 million additional new cases predicted for 2050 compared to estimates for 2022.

However, the proportional increase in incidence is more striking in low HDI countries (142% increase) and in medium HDI countries (99%). Likewise, cancer mortality in these countries is expected to almost double by 2050.

“The impact of this increase will not be felt uniformly in countries with different HDI levels. “Those who have the least resources to manage the cancer burden will be the most affected by the global cancer burden,” says Dr. Freddie Bray , Head of the IARC Cancer Surveillance Branch.

“Despite the progress that has been made in the early detection of cancer and in the treatment and care of cancer patients, significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes exist not only between high- and low-income regions of the world. , but also within countries. Where someone lives should not determine whether they live or not. Tools exist to enable governments to prioritize cancer care and ensure that everyone has access to quality, affordable services. It is not just a question of resources, but of political will,” says Dr. Cary Adams , director of the UICC (Union for International Cancer Control).