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Maintaining mask use at levels seen in the US from March to July 2020 until COVID-19 vaccination goals are met offers significant health and economic benefits
According to a modeling study published in the journal The Lancet Public Health. The lower the level of final vaccination coverage of the population, the greater the economic and health benefits of maintaining the use of masks.
US population simulations indicate that continuing to wear face masks at levels seen between March and July 2020 two to 10 weeks after meeting vaccination goals would save billions of dollars in social and care costs and would greatly reduce hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19.
Face masks were widely used in the US early in the pandemic; However, many of the mask requirements put in place during the delta and omicron surges have recently been relaxed, even though vaccination rates are still below potential herd immunity thresholds. While precise herd immunity thresholds for COVID-19 are unknown, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set a global vaccination coverage target of 70% by mid-2022.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently released a tool that offers guidance on the use of face masks based on COVID-19 levels in each of the more than 3,000 U.S. counties. These new recommendations are not mandates, but are intended to inform indoor mask-wearing policies for states and municipalities. Policies regarding the use of masks in settings under federal jurisdictions, such as airports and healthcare settings, will remain in effect.
Lead author Dr Bruce Y. Lee, from the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, US, says: "Our findings emphasize that vaccination alone is not sufficient to control the pandemic and that overlapping layers of protective measures are needed to limit economic impacts and deaths.” The CDC’s newly released recommendations come at a time when many places in the U.S. are also beginning to consider easing requirements of masks, and the choice to wear a mask will come down to individual decisions or private company decisions. Our model represents the US population, but the breadth and scale of the simulated scenarios means that the results are also applicable to other countries.”
Previous studies have shown that face masks reduce the spread of severe COVID-19. However, the economic value of maintaining mask use, especially at different levels of population vaccination coverage, has been unclear.
The authors of the new study developed a computational model that represents the spread and impact of COVID-19 among the more than 327 million people in the US and simulated the use of face masks before and after achieving different levels of coverage. vaccination under a wide variety. of circumstances The scenarios varied the population’s final COVID-19 vaccination levels and the date these goals were met, as well as the levels of mask use and the date mask use ended.
In all simulated scenarios, it was cost-effective to maintain mask use for two to 10 weeks after reaching population vaccination goals.
Maintaining mask use was always cost-effective and generally cost-saving when the cost of mask use per person per day was less than $1.25. The authors determined that the combination of N95, surgical, and cloth masks used in the U.S. from March to July 2020 resulted in a cost of $0.32 per person per day.
The lower the level of vaccination coverage of the final population, the greater the benefits of continued mask use. For example, if the US were to achieve 90% vaccination coverage by May 1, 2022, maintaining mask use until then would avoid $13.3 billion in societal costs and $2.4 billion in direct medical costs, as well as 6 .29 million cases of COVID-19, 136,700 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths. By comparison, achieving 80% coverage would increase savings to $16.7 billion in societal costs, $2.9 billion in direct medical costs, and prevent 7.66 million cases, 174,900 hospitalizations, and 20,500 deaths.
For a given final vaccination level, the longer it takes to reach that level, the greater the benefits of maintaining mask use. For example, achieving 80% vaccination coverage by July 1 would avoid $18.7 billion in societal costs, $3.3 billion in direct medical costs, 8.57 million cases, and 23,200 deaths.
The emergence of more transmissible variants further increases the benefits of wearing face masks, as does reduced vaccine effectiveness, either due to the emergence of variants or waning immunity.
Increasing the social mixing of people of different ages by relaxing social distancing measures also increases the benefits of wearing masks. In each case, wearing masks saves billions of dollars in healthcare and social costs and greatly reduces COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.
“Our findings offer some light at the end of the tunnel, suggesting that mask-wearing does not have to continue forever but remains an important tool in stopping the spread of COVID-19 as we enter the next phase.” of the pandemic.”, says Dr. Peter Hotez, from the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine (USA) and co-author of the study.
“ Virus transmission does not stop as soon as population vaccination goals are reached , but maintaining mask use for a few weeks after these goals are reached can generate enormous health and economic benefits,” adds Dr. Maria Elena Bottazzi, from the National School of Tropical Medicine. at Baylor College of Medicine (USA).
The authors acknowledge some limitations regarding the use of models, which are simplifications of real life and cannot account for all possible outcomes. The effectiveness of face masks against COVID-19 transmission was fixed for the duration of the simulations; however, this may vary from day to day and over time, and with local policies. The simulations assume vaccination coverage of the entire population, however some groups, such as children under five, are not yet eligible.
